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National Grid issues Future Energy Scenarios

Renewable Energy

The National Grid has issued its annual Future Energy Scenarios (FES) publication.

The National Grid said that the report offered four possible scenarios for the future of energy based on industry-wide stakeholder engagement and research. It said that the scenarios have taken into account differing policy and economic landscapes to understand the potential impact on energy supply and demand.

“We are in the midst of an energy revolution with a shift to demand side response, an exponential rise in renewables and the uptake of new technology such as electric vehicles,” said National Grid head of energy insights Marcus Stewart.

“As system operator, we are fortunate to be at the very centre of the energy industry and we constantly gather data to make sense of the changes that are coming our way. Our scenarios are vital for anyone trying to keep up with the rapid pace of change in the energy sector.”

The National Grid said that the scenarios were developed using data from a huge range of sources and that it had worked with 362 stakeholder organisations, including academia, government, industry, trade associations and charities, to ensure that the scenarios continued to provide a benchmark from which essential decisions can be made.

“This year we have developed our scenarios, incorporating new technologies and developments such as new electricity storage,” said Stewart. “We explore in detail whether the 2050 carbon reduction target is still achievable and what steps we need to take as a society to stay on track to meet it.”

A copy of the report can be downloaded here.

The four Future Energy Scenarios:

  1. Gone Green is a world of high prosperity and high green ambition. Policy intervention and innovation are both ambitious and effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The focus on long-term environmental goals, high level of prosperity and advanced European harmonisation ensure that the 2050 carbon reduction target is achieved.
  2. Slow Progression is a world of low prosperity and high green ambition. Economic conditions limit society’s ability to transition as quickly as desired to a renewable, low carbon world. Choices for residential consumers and businesses are restricted, yet a range of new technologies and policies do develop. This results in some progress towards decarbonisation but at a slower pace than society would like.
  3. No Progression is a world of low prosperity and low green ambition. Business as usual activities prevail. Society is focused on the short term, concentrating on affordability above green ambition. Traditional sources of gas and electricity dominate the supply market and there is little innovation altering how energy is used.
  4. Consumer Power is a world of high prosperity and low green ambition. It is a market-driven world, with limited government intervention. High levels of prosperity allow for high investment and innovation. New technologies are prevalent and focus on the desires of consumers over and above reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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