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Analyst warns of 2012 cost hike


OLYMPIC COSTS will soar in the build up to London 2012, a leading risk analyst warned last week.

Gerald Orman, principal of Orman Risk Analysts, blamed the UK's notorious over optimism when estimating outturn costs and its 'hazy idea of pricing a project, the timescale and how in tion is going to act'.

Speaking at NCE's Games Brie conference, Oman said: 'We are dealing not with fixed gures but three positively skewed variables. If you take the uncertainty and multiply it you get the sort of cost overruns we are used to on public sector projects.

'The same thing will happen on the Olympics unless we tie down the specication, get accurate estimates and add a realistic view of inflation.'

Orman has been working for the Highways Agency predicting the impact of an overheating construction industry on the costs of its £4.5bn M25 widening scheme.

'The Olympics are a eabite in terms of additional expenditure in London leading up to 2012, ' he said. 'There are 40 projects worth over £100M planned.

Investment in two hospitals totals £2bn. The Olympics will have to live with the pressures and make the best of it that they can.' he Olympic Delivery Authority (ODA) is quoting the cost of the Olympics at 2004 prices as £2.3bn, plus £1bn of investment in infrastructure.

Its new delivery partner CLM is 'checking the pricing' according to ODA chief executive David Higgins.

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